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Markov chain methods: Cases of study

Markov chain methods in Language Evolution and Musical Dice Games Dimitri Volchenkov (Bielefeld University）- 2nd 45′ talk

Changes in languages go on constantly affecting words through various innovations and borrowings.

Although tree diagrams have become ubiquitous in representations of language taxonomies, they obviously fail to reveal full complexity of language affinity characterized by many phonetic, morphophonemic, lexical, and grammatical isoglosses;

not least because of the fact that the simple relation of ancestry basic for a branching family tree structure cannot grasp complex social, cultural and political factors molding the extreme historical language contacts.

• Evolutionary trees conflict with each other and with the traditionally accepted family arborescence; • The languages known as isolates cannot be reliably classified into any branch with other living languages.

From Gray, R. D. and Q. D. Atkinson. 2003. Language tree divergence times support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origin. Nature 426: 435-439.

A number of additional edges & the considerable reticulation in a central part of the usual phylogenetic trees are to represent conflict between the different splits due to contacts and combined interactions between languages.

The more comprehensive the graphical model is, the less clear are its visual apprehension and interpretation

From "The Shape and Fabric of Language Evolution" by S.J. Greenhill, Q.D. Atkinson, A. Meade, R.D. Gray

Idea: To geometrize phylogenetic relations using the Markov chain approach!

1. We present a fully automated method for building genetic language taxonomies where the relationships between different languages in the language family are represented geometrically, in terms of distances and angles, as in Euclidean geometry of everyday intuition.

2. We have tested our method for the 50 major languages of Indo- European language family; 3. and then investigated the Austronesian phylogeny considered again over 50 languages

•

encoding • •

Introduce a metric; Implement the various clustering techniques to simplify the representations of the data

Express the relations between some linguistic features in a numerical form

representation

interpretation

•

The meanings of the identified components have to be assessed.

The idea of assessing the phylogeny of languages via the similarity between words having the same meanings.

D. D’Urville, ”Sur les îles du Grand Océan”, Bulletin de la Société de Géographie 17, 1-21 (1832).

During his voyages in Pacific aboard the “Astrolabe” from 1826 to 1829, he collected comparative lists of 115 basic terms posited as especially stable.

« La langue est partout la même! » Dumont d'Urville (1790 –1842)

(The language is everywhere the same!) He detected the Austronesian group of languages.

Glottochronology The idea to count the number of words that have been replaced in a language considering a list which contains terms which are common to all cultures and which concern the basic activities of humans.

The choice is motivated by the fact that the vocabulary learned during childhood changes very slowly over time.

Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

Swadesh list of words 1 . I (Pers.Pron.1.Sg.) 2 .You (2.sg) 3. We 4. This 5. That 6. Who? 7. What?

8. Not 9. All (of a number) 10.Many 11.One 12.Two 13.Big etc… Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

Glottochronologists use the percentage of shared cognates (words inferred to have a common historical origin) in order to compute the distance between pairs of languages.

dist l1, l2 log t Changes in vocabulary are supposed to accumulate year after year, and two languages initially similar become more and more different.

* Identification of cognates is a matter of sensibility, personal knowledge, and historical records: Spanish

Latin

Greek

lac

galactos gala

leche

* The rates of lexical changes in words are all different, as being probably related to the frequency of use of the associated meanings.

encoding

* Comparison over a large vocabulary is LESS ACCURATE, as many similar words rather carry information about the extreme historical contacts, than about the actual language similarity.

Brahui is Dravidian by the syntactic structure, despite 85% of all its words are Indo-European.

* Bias between orthographic and phonetic realizations of meanings!

Levenshtein’s distance: (Edit distance) is a measure of the similarity between two strings: the number of deletions, insertions, or substitutions required to transform one string into another. K MILCH = MILK

0,1 Dmilch, milk 2 5

Levenshtein’s distance: (Edit distance) is a measure of the similarity between two strings: the number of deletions, insertions, or substitutions required to transform one string into another. K MILCH = MILK

0,1 Dmilch, milk 2 5

The normalized edit distance between the orthographic realizations of two words can be interpreted as the probability of mismatch between two characters picked from the words at random.

The short list of meanings and its stability: The stability of the meaning α over a sample of N languages is defined by

0,1 The averaged distance in the r.h.s. is smaller for those words corresponding to meanings with a lower rate of lexical evolution, since they tend to remain more similar in two languages. Therefore, to a larger S(α) there corresponds a greater stability.

One should keep all the meanings with higher information, take at least some of the most stable meanings in the linear part of the curve and exclude completely those meanings with lower information.

Swadesh list of words 1 . I (Pers.Pron.1.Sg.) 2 .You (2.sg) 3. We 4. This 5. That 6. Who? 7. What?

8. Not 9. All (of a number) 10.Many 11.One 12.Two 13.Big etc… Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

A WELL ADJUSTED INPUT VOCABULARY EXHIBITING UNIFORMLY HIGH STABILITY OF ITEMS, WITH RESPECT TO THE DEFINED DISTANCE;

stable vocabulary

The 20 most stable words for the IE and AU language families, with their stability values within the family.

In the different language groups, the different meanings are stable!

1. We have used a short list of 200 words (Swadesh’s list) adopted to reconstruct systematic sound correspondences between the languages, known to change at a very slow rate containing terms which are common to all cultures – rather than a complete dictionary. 2. Swadeshs’ list for the languages written in the different alphabets were already transliterated into English by Dyen et al.(1997), Greenhill et al.(2008). 3. We have studied languages within a language family

A DISTANCE ACCUMULATING THE

distance

DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEMATIC SOUND CORRESPONDENCES BETWEEN THE

REALIZATIONS OF INDIVIDUAL MEANINGS.

The lexical distance between l1 and l2, can be interpreted as the average probability to distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of Swadesh’s meanings.

A CLUSTERING MAPS THE MATRIX OF LEXICAL DISTANCES CALCULATED OVER THE OPTIMIZED

clustering

VOCABULARY INTO LOW-DIMENSIONAL SPACE OF LANGUAGE GROUPS.

Any historical development in language cannot be described only in terms of ‘pair-wise’ interactions, but it reflects a genuine higher order influence among the different language groups.

The kernel PCA method (Schölkopf et al.,1998) generalizes PCA to the case where we are interested in taking all higher-order correlations between data instances. The lexical distance between l1 and l2 is the average probability to distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of a Swadesh’s meaning.

1 Pli , l j lim T li , l j , Tij d li , l j n 1 T ij k 0 n

k

P is the total probability of successful classification by an infinite series of matchings, for the two languages in the language family.

N

d l , l k 1

i

k

Pqk k qk , 0 1 2 N The rank-ordering of data traits, in accordance to their eigenvalues provides us with the natural geometric framework for dimensionality reduction.

Pqk k qk , 0 1 2 N representation

1.

2. 3.

The four well-separated monophyletic spines represent the four biggest traditional IE language groups: Romance & Celtic, Germanic, Balto-Slavic, and Indo-Iranian; The Greek, Romance, Celtic, and Germanic languages form a class characterized by approximately the same azimuth angle (belong to one plane); The Indo-Iranian, Balto-Slavic, Armenian, and Albanian languages form another class, with respect to the zenith angle.

The systematic sound correspondences between the Swadesh’s words across the different languages perfectly coincides with the well-known centum-satem isogloss of the IE family (reflecting the IE numeral ‘100’), related to the evolution in the phonetically unstable palatovelar order.

The normal probability plots fitting the distances r of language points from the ‘center of mass’ to univariate normality. The data points were ranked and then plotted against their expected values under normality, so that departures from linearity signify departures from normality.

x 2 x 2 exp exp 2 2 2 t 2 t 2 2

interpretation

The univariate normal distribution is closely related to the time evolution of a mass-density function under homogeneous diffusion in one dimension x 2 x 2 exp exp 2 2 2 t 2 t 2 2

in which the mean value μ is interpreted as the coordinate of a point where all mass was initially concentrated, and variance σ2 ∝ t grows linearly with time. Nothing to do with the traditional glottochronological assumption about the steady borrowing rates of cognates (Embelton, 1986)! The values of variance σ2 give a statistically consistent estimate of age for each language group. Anchor events: 1. 2. 3. 4.

the last Celtic migration (to the Balkans and Asia Minor) (300 BC), the division of the Roman Empire (500 AD), the migration of German tribes to the Danube River (100 AD), the establishment of the Avars Khaganate (590 AD) overspreading Slavic people who did the bulk of the fighting across Europe.

From the time–variance ratio we can retrieve the probable dates for: The break-up of the Proto-Indo-Iranian continuum. The migration from the early Andronovo archaeological horizon (Bryant, 2001).

by 2,400 BC The end of common Balto-Slavic history The archaeological dating of Trziniec-Komarov culture

before 1,400 BC The separation of Indo-Arians from Indo-Iranians. Probably, as a result of Aryan migration across India to Ceylon, as early as in 483BC (Mcleod, 2002)

before 400 BC

The division of Persian polity into a number of Iranian tribes, after the end of Greco-Persian wars (Green, 1996).

before 400 BC

The Kurgan scenario postulating the IE origin among the people of “Kurgan culture”(early 4th millennium BC) in the Pontic steppe (Gimbutas,1982) .

Einkorn wheat

The Anatolian hypothesis suggests the origin in the Neolithic Anatolia and associates the expansion with the Neolithic agricultural revolution in the 8th and 6th millennia BC (Renfrew,1987).

The graphical test to check three-variate normality of the distribution of the distances of the five proto-languages from a statistically determined central point is presented by extending the notion of the normal probability plot. The χ-square distribution is used to test for goodness of fit of the observed distribution: the departures from three-variant normality are indicated by departures from linearity.

The use of the previously determined time–variance ratio then dates the initial break-up of the Proto-Indo-Europeans back to 7,400 BC pointing at the early Neolithic date.

The components probe for a sample of 50 AU languages immediately uncovers the both Formosan (F) and Malayo-Polynesian (MP) branches of the entire language family.

Headhunters

The distribution of languages spoken within Maritime Southeast Asia, Melanesia, Western Polynesia and of the Paiwan language group in Taiwan over the distances from the center of the diagram conforms to univariate normality suggesting that an interaction sphere had existed encompassing the whole region, from the Philippines and Southern Indonesia through the Solomon Islands to Western Polynesia, where ideas and cultural traits were shared and spread as attested by trade (Bellwood and Koon,1989; Kirch,1997) and translocation off animals (Matisoo-Smith and Robins,2004; Larsonetal.,2007) among shore line communities.

By 550 AD

…pretty well before 600 –1200 AD while descendants from Melanesia settled in the distant apices of the Polynesian triangle as evidenced by archaeological records (Kirch, 2000; Anderson and Sinoto,2002; Hurlesetal.,2003).

The distributions of languages spoken in the islands of East Polynesia and of the Atayal language groups in Taiwan over the radial coordinate from the center of the geometric representation break from normality. They seem to evolve without extensive contacts with Melanesian populations, perhaps because of a rapid movement of the ancestors of the Polynesians from South-East Asia as suggested by the ‘express train’ model (Diamond, 1988) consistent with the multiple evidences on comparatively reduced genetic variations among human groups in Remote Oceania (Lum et al., 2002; Kayseretal., 2006; Friedländeret al., 2008).

The ‘adiabatic’ model of evolution is conceived by that while the contact borrowings are improbable the orthographic realizations of Swadesh’s meanings would accumulate emergent variations in spellings, so that the radial coordinate of a remote language can formally grow unboundedly with isolation time.

Recognized in 1820

Recognized in 1750 • Tahiti is the foremost Austronesian settlement in the Remote Oceania attested as early as 300 BC (Kirch, 2000); • Archaeological reconstructions (Kirch, 2000; Anderson & Sinoto, 2002; Hurlesetal., 2003) Hawaii had been settled by 600 AD; • New Zealand by 1000 AD testifying the earliest outset dates for the related languages.

The log-linear plot fitting the distances to remote languages riding an ‘express train’ in the geometric representation to an exponential distribution.

The lexical distances between languages are taken as the average probability to

encoding

distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of a Swadesh’s meaning.

We considered an infinite sequential process of language classification described by random walks on the matrix of lexical distances. As a result, the relationships

representation

between languages belonging to one and the same language family are translated

into distances and angles, in multidimensional Euclidean space.

The derived geometric representations of language taxonomy are used in order to test the interpretation

various statistical hypotheses about the evolution of languages and to making accurate

inferences on the most significant events of human history by tracking changes in language families through time.

The proposed method is fully automated and computationally simple.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games A system for using dice to compose music randomly, without having to know neither the techniques of composition, nor the rules of harmony, named Musikalisches Würfelspiel (Musical dice game)(MDG) had become quite popular throughout Western Europe in the 18th century. "The Ever Ready Composer of Polonaises and Minuets" was devised by Ph. Kirnberger, as early as in 1757.

The famous chance music machine attributed to W.A. Mozart ("K 516f") consisted of numerous two-bar fragments of music named after the different letters of the Latin alphabet and destined to be combined together either at random, or following an anagram of your beloved had been known since 1787.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games From one hand, studies of Markov chains aggregating pitches in musical pieces might provide a neat way to efficient algorithms for identifying musical features important for a listener.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games From one hand, studies of Markov chains aggregating pitches in musical pieces might provide a neat way to efficient algorithms for identifying musical features important for a listener. From another hand, the analysis of weighted directed graphs correspondent to the timeirreversible random walks defined on a finite set of states (pitches) belonging to a cyclic group, under the assumption of octave equivalency is a daunting task for the contemporary theory of networks being therefore of a special theoretical interest.

In the MDG, we consider a note as an elementary event providing a natural discretization of musical phenomena. Namely, given the entire keyboard K of 128 notes (standard for the MIDI representations of music) corresponding to a pitch range of 10.5 octaves, each divided into 12 semitones, we regard a note as a discrete random variable Xt . In the musical dice game, a piece is generated by patching notes Xt taking values from the set of pitches that sound good together into a temporal sequence {Xt} t≥1.

In the MDG, we consider a note as an elementary event providing a natural discretization of musical phenomena. Namely, given the entire keyboard K of 128 notes (standard for the MIDI representations of music) corresponding to a pitch range of 10.5 octaves, each divided into 12 semitones, we regard a note as a discrete random variable Xt . In the musical dice game, a piece is generated by patching notes Xt taking values from the set of pitches that sound good together into a temporal sequence {Xt} t≥1.

Musical Dice Game is not a particular musical composition! (*) The relations between notes in (*) are rather described in terms of probabilities and expected numbers of random steps than by physical time. Thus the actual length N of a composition is formally put N → ∞, or as long as you keep rolling the dice.

F. Liszt Consolation-No1

V.A. Mozart, Eine-Kleine-Nachtmusik

Bach_Prelude_BWV999

R. Wagner, Das Rheingold (Entrance of the Gods)

Markov’s chains determining random walks on such graphs are not ergodic: it may be impossible to go from every note to every other note following the score of the musical piece.

The values of first passage times to notes are strictly ordered in accordance to their role in the tone scale of the musical composition.

The basic pitches for the E minor scale are E, F#, G, A, B, C, and D.

The E major scale is based on E, F#, G#, A, B, C#, and D#. The A major scale consists of A, B, C#, D, E, F#, and G#.

Tonality of Western music

The log-log scatter plot contains 12×804 points representing the recurrence time vs. the first passage time to the 12 notes of one octave, over the MDG based on 804 compositions of 29 composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

Correlation and covariance matrices calculated for the medians of the first passage times in a single octave provide the basis for the classification of composers, with respect to their tonality preferences.

The correlogram allows for identifying a number of groups of composers exhibiting similar preferences in the use of tone scales, as correlations are positive and strong within each tone group while being weak or even negative between the different groups.

Classical Period of music

Romantic period in classical music

Middle Romantic era Late Romantic era

The correlogram allows for identifying a number of groups of composers exhibiting similar preferences in the use of tone scales, as correlations are positive and strong within each tone group while being weak or even negative between the different groups.

Interestingly, the names of composers that are contiguous in the correlogram are often found together in musical concerts and on records performed by commercial musicians.

View more...
Markov chain methods in Language Evolution and Musical Dice Games Dimitri Volchenkov (Bielefeld University）- 2nd 45′ talk

Changes in languages go on constantly affecting words through various innovations and borrowings.

Although tree diagrams have become ubiquitous in representations of language taxonomies, they obviously fail to reveal full complexity of language affinity characterized by many phonetic, morphophonemic, lexical, and grammatical isoglosses;

not least because of the fact that the simple relation of ancestry basic for a branching family tree structure cannot grasp complex social, cultural and political factors molding the extreme historical language contacts.

• Evolutionary trees conflict with each other and with the traditionally accepted family arborescence; • The languages known as isolates cannot be reliably classified into any branch with other living languages.

From Gray, R. D. and Q. D. Atkinson. 2003. Language tree divergence times support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origin. Nature 426: 435-439.

A number of additional edges & the considerable reticulation in a central part of the usual phylogenetic trees are to represent conflict between the different splits due to contacts and combined interactions between languages.

The more comprehensive the graphical model is, the less clear are its visual apprehension and interpretation

From "The Shape and Fabric of Language Evolution" by S.J. Greenhill, Q.D. Atkinson, A. Meade, R.D. Gray

Idea: To geometrize phylogenetic relations using the Markov chain approach!

1. We present a fully automated method for building genetic language taxonomies where the relationships between different languages in the language family are represented geometrically, in terms of distances and angles, as in Euclidean geometry of everyday intuition.

2. We have tested our method for the 50 major languages of Indo- European language family; 3. and then investigated the Austronesian phylogeny considered again over 50 languages

•

encoding • •

Introduce a metric; Implement the various clustering techniques to simplify the representations of the data

Express the relations between some linguistic features in a numerical form

representation

interpretation

•

The meanings of the identified components have to be assessed.

The idea of assessing the phylogeny of languages via the similarity between words having the same meanings.

D. D’Urville, ”Sur les îles du Grand Océan”, Bulletin de la Société de Géographie 17, 1-21 (1832).

During his voyages in Pacific aboard the “Astrolabe” from 1826 to 1829, he collected comparative lists of 115 basic terms posited as especially stable.

« La langue est partout la même! » Dumont d'Urville (1790 –1842)

(The language is everywhere the same!) He detected the Austronesian group of languages.

Glottochronology The idea to count the number of words that have been replaced in a language considering a list which contains terms which are common to all cultures and which concern the basic activities of humans.

The choice is motivated by the fact that the vocabulary learned during childhood changes very slowly over time.

Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

Swadesh list of words 1 . I (Pers.Pron.1.Sg.) 2 .You (2.sg) 3. We 4. This 5. That 6. Who? 7. What?

8. Not 9. All (of a number) 10.Many 11.One 12.Two 13.Big etc… Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

Glottochronologists use the percentage of shared cognates (words inferred to have a common historical origin) in order to compute the distance between pairs of languages.

dist l1, l2 log t Changes in vocabulary are supposed to accumulate year after year, and two languages initially similar become more and more different.

* Identification of cognates is a matter of sensibility, personal knowledge, and historical records: Spanish

Latin

Greek

lac

galactos gala

leche

* The rates of lexical changes in words are all different, as being probably related to the frequency of use of the associated meanings.

encoding

* Comparison over a large vocabulary is LESS ACCURATE, as many similar words rather carry information about the extreme historical contacts, than about the actual language similarity.

Brahui is Dravidian by the syntactic structure, despite 85% of all its words are Indo-European.

* Bias between orthographic and phonetic realizations of meanings!

Levenshtein’s distance: (Edit distance) is a measure of the similarity between two strings: the number of deletions, insertions, or substitutions required to transform one string into another. K MILCH = MILK

0,1 Dmilch, milk 2 5

Levenshtein’s distance: (Edit distance) is a measure of the similarity between two strings: the number of deletions, insertions, or substitutions required to transform one string into another. K MILCH = MILK

0,1 Dmilch, milk 2 5

The normalized edit distance between the orthographic realizations of two words can be interpreted as the probability of mismatch between two characters picked from the words at random.

The short list of meanings and its stability: The stability of the meaning α over a sample of N languages is defined by

0,1 The averaged distance in the r.h.s. is smaller for those words corresponding to meanings with a lower rate of lexical evolution, since they tend to remain more similar in two languages. Therefore, to a larger S(α) there corresponds a greater stability.

One should keep all the meanings with higher information, take at least some of the most stable meanings in the linear part of the curve and exclude completely those meanings with lower information.

Swadesh list of words 1 . I (Pers.Pron.1.Sg.) 2 .You (2.sg) 3. We 4. This 5. That 6. Who? 7. What?

8. Not 9. All (of a number) 10.Many 11.One 12.Two 13.Big etc… Morris Swadesh (1909 - 1967)

A WELL ADJUSTED INPUT VOCABULARY EXHIBITING UNIFORMLY HIGH STABILITY OF ITEMS, WITH RESPECT TO THE DEFINED DISTANCE;

stable vocabulary

The 20 most stable words for the IE and AU language families, with their stability values within the family.

In the different language groups, the different meanings are stable!

1. We have used a short list of 200 words (Swadesh’s list) adopted to reconstruct systematic sound correspondences between the languages, known to change at a very slow rate containing terms which are common to all cultures – rather than a complete dictionary. 2. Swadeshs’ list for the languages written in the different alphabets were already transliterated into English by Dyen et al.(1997), Greenhill et al.(2008). 3. We have studied languages within a language family

A DISTANCE ACCUMULATING THE

distance

DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEMATIC SOUND CORRESPONDENCES BETWEEN THE

REALIZATIONS OF INDIVIDUAL MEANINGS.

The lexical distance between l1 and l2, can be interpreted as the average probability to distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of Swadesh’s meanings.

A CLUSTERING MAPS THE MATRIX OF LEXICAL DISTANCES CALCULATED OVER THE OPTIMIZED

clustering

VOCABULARY INTO LOW-DIMENSIONAL SPACE OF LANGUAGE GROUPS.

Any historical development in language cannot be described only in terms of ‘pair-wise’ interactions, but it reflects a genuine higher order influence among the different language groups.

The kernel PCA method (Schölkopf et al.,1998) generalizes PCA to the case where we are interested in taking all higher-order correlations between data instances. The lexical distance between l1 and l2 is the average probability to distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of a Swadesh’s meaning.

1 Pli , l j lim T li , l j , Tij d li , l j n 1 T ij k 0 n

k

P is the total probability of successful classification by an infinite series of matchings, for the two languages in the language family.

N

d l , l k 1

i

k

Pqk k qk , 0 1 2 N The rank-ordering of data traits, in accordance to their eigenvalues provides us with the natural geometric framework for dimensionality reduction.

Pqk k qk , 0 1 2 N representation

1.

2. 3.

The four well-separated monophyletic spines represent the four biggest traditional IE language groups: Romance & Celtic, Germanic, Balto-Slavic, and Indo-Iranian; The Greek, Romance, Celtic, and Germanic languages form a class characterized by approximately the same azimuth angle (belong to one plane); The Indo-Iranian, Balto-Slavic, Armenian, and Albanian languages form another class, with respect to the zenith angle.

The systematic sound correspondences between the Swadesh’s words across the different languages perfectly coincides with the well-known centum-satem isogloss of the IE family (reflecting the IE numeral ‘100’), related to the evolution in the phonetically unstable palatovelar order.

The normal probability plots fitting the distances r of language points from the ‘center of mass’ to univariate normality. The data points were ranked and then plotted against their expected values under normality, so that departures from linearity signify departures from normality.

x 2 x 2 exp exp 2 2 2 t 2 t 2 2

interpretation

The univariate normal distribution is closely related to the time evolution of a mass-density function under homogeneous diffusion in one dimension x 2 x 2 exp exp 2 2 2 t 2 t 2 2

in which the mean value μ is interpreted as the coordinate of a point where all mass was initially concentrated, and variance σ2 ∝ t grows linearly with time. Nothing to do with the traditional glottochronological assumption about the steady borrowing rates of cognates (Embelton, 1986)! The values of variance σ2 give a statistically consistent estimate of age for each language group. Anchor events: 1. 2. 3. 4.

the last Celtic migration (to the Balkans and Asia Minor) (300 BC), the division of the Roman Empire (500 AD), the migration of German tribes to the Danube River (100 AD), the establishment of the Avars Khaganate (590 AD) overspreading Slavic people who did the bulk of the fighting across Europe.

From the time–variance ratio we can retrieve the probable dates for: The break-up of the Proto-Indo-Iranian continuum. The migration from the early Andronovo archaeological horizon (Bryant, 2001).

by 2,400 BC The end of common Balto-Slavic history The archaeological dating of Trziniec-Komarov culture

before 1,400 BC The separation of Indo-Arians from Indo-Iranians. Probably, as a result of Aryan migration across India to Ceylon, as early as in 483BC (Mcleod, 2002)

before 400 BC

The division of Persian polity into a number of Iranian tribes, after the end of Greco-Persian wars (Green, 1996).

before 400 BC

The Kurgan scenario postulating the IE origin among the people of “Kurgan culture”(early 4th millennium BC) in the Pontic steppe (Gimbutas,1982) .

Einkorn wheat

The Anatolian hypothesis suggests the origin in the Neolithic Anatolia and associates the expansion with the Neolithic agricultural revolution in the 8th and 6th millennia BC (Renfrew,1987).

The graphical test to check three-variate normality of the distribution of the distances of the five proto-languages from a statistically determined central point is presented by extending the notion of the normal probability plot. The χ-square distribution is used to test for goodness of fit of the observed distribution: the departures from three-variant normality are indicated by departures from linearity.

The use of the previously determined time–variance ratio then dates the initial break-up of the Proto-Indo-Europeans back to 7,400 BC pointing at the early Neolithic date.

The components probe for a sample of 50 AU languages immediately uncovers the both Formosan (F) and Malayo-Polynesian (MP) branches of the entire language family.

Headhunters

The distribution of languages spoken within Maritime Southeast Asia, Melanesia, Western Polynesia and of the Paiwan language group in Taiwan over the distances from the center of the diagram conforms to univariate normality suggesting that an interaction sphere had existed encompassing the whole region, from the Philippines and Southern Indonesia through the Solomon Islands to Western Polynesia, where ideas and cultural traits were shared and spread as attested by trade (Bellwood and Koon,1989; Kirch,1997) and translocation off animals (Matisoo-Smith and Robins,2004; Larsonetal.,2007) among shore line communities.

By 550 AD

…pretty well before 600 –1200 AD while descendants from Melanesia settled in the distant apices of the Polynesian triangle as evidenced by archaeological records (Kirch, 2000; Anderson and Sinoto,2002; Hurlesetal.,2003).

The distributions of languages spoken in the islands of East Polynesia and of the Atayal language groups in Taiwan over the radial coordinate from the center of the geometric representation break from normality. They seem to evolve without extensive contacts with Melanesian populations, perhaps because of a rapid movement of the ancestors of the Polynesians from South-East Asia as suggested by the ‘express train’ model (Diamond, 1988) consistent with the multiple evidences on comparatively reduced genetic variations among human groups in Remote Oceania (Lum et al., 2002; Kayseretal., 2006; Friedländeret al., 2008).

The ‘adiabatic’ model of evolution is conceived by that while the contact borrowings are improbable the orthographic realizations of Swadesh’s meanings would accumulate emergent variations in spellings, so that the radial coordinate of a remote language can formally grow unboundedly with isolation time.

Recognized in 1820

Recognized in 1750 • Tahiti is the foremost Austronesian settlement in the Remote Oceania attested as early as 300 BC (Kirch, 2000); • Archaeological reconstructions (Kirch, 2000; Anderson & Sinoto, 2002; Hurlesetal., 2003) Hawaii had been settled by 600 AD; • New Zealand by 1000 AD testifying the earliest outset dates for the related languages.

The log-linear plot fitting the distances to remote languages riding an ‘express train’ in the geometric representation to an exponential distribution.

The lexical distances between languages are taken as the average probability to

encoding

distinguish them by a mismatch between two characters randomly chosen from the orthographic realizations of a Swadesh’s meaning.

We considered an infinite sequential process of language classification described by random walks on the matrix of lexical distances. As a result, the relationships

representation

between languages belonging to one and the same language family are translated

into distances and angles, in multidimensional Euclidean space.

The derived geometric representations of language taxonomy are used in order to test the interpretation

various statistical hypotheses about the evolution of languages and to making accurate

inferences on the most significant events of human history by tracking changes in language families through time.

The proposed method is fully automated and computationally simple.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games A system for using dice to compose music randomly, without having to know neither the techniques of composition, nor the rules of harmony, named Musikalisches Würfelspiel (Musical dice game)(MDG) had become quite popular throughout Western Europe in the 18th century. "The Ever Ready Composer of Polonaises and Minuets" was devised by Ph. Kirnberger, as early as in 1757.

The famous chance music machine attributed to W.A. Mozart ("K 516f") consisted of numerous two-bar fragments of music named after the different letters of the Latin alphabet and destined to be combined together either at random, or following an anagram of your beloved had been known since 1787.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games From one hand, studies of Markov chains aggregating pitches in musical pieces might provide a neat way to efficient algorithms for identifying musical features important for a listener.

Markov Chain Analysis of Musical Dice Games From one hand, studies of Markov chains aggregating pitches in musical pieces might provide a neat way to efficient algorithms for identifying musical features important for a listener. From another hand, the analysis of weighted directed graphs correspondent to the timeirreversible random walks defined on a finite set of states (pitches) belonging to a cyclic group, under the assumption of octave equivalency is a daunting task for the contemporary theory of networks being therefore of a special theoretical interest.

In the MDG, we consider a note as an elementary event providing a natural discretization of musical phenomena. Namely, given the entire keyboard K of 128 notes (standard for the MIDI representations of music) corresponding to a pitch range of 10.5 octaves, each divided into 12 semitones, we regard a note as a discrete random variable Xt . In the musical dice game, a piece is generated by patching notes Xt taking values from the set of pitches that sound good together into a temporal sequence {Xt} t≥1.

In the MDG, we consider a note as an elementary event providing a natural discretization of musical phenomena. Namely, given the entire keyboard K of 128 notes (standard for the MIDI representations of music) corresponding to a pitch range of 10.5 octaves, each divided into 12 semitones, we regard a note as a discrete random variable Xt . In the musical dice game, a piece is generated by patching notes Xt taking values from the set of pitches that sound good together into a temporal sequence {Xt} t≥1.

Musical Dice Game is not a particular musical composition! (*) The relations between notes in (*) are rather described in terms of probabilities and expected numbers of random steps than by physical time. Thus the actual length N of a composition is formally put N → ∞, or as long as you keep rolling the dice.

F. Liszt Consolation-No1

V.A. Mozart, Eine-Kleine-Nachtmusik

Bach_Prelude_BWV999

R. Wagner, Das Rheingold (Entrance of the Gods)

Markov’s chains determining random walks on such graphs are not ergodic: it may be impossible to go from every note to every other note following the score of the musical piece.

The values of first passage times to notes are strictly ordered in accordance to their role in the tone scale of the musical composition.

The basic pitches for the E minor scale are E, F#, G, A, B, C, and D.

The E major scale is based on E, F#, G#, A, B, C#, and D#. The A major scale consists of A, B, C#, D, E, F#, and G#.

Tonality of Western music

The log-log scatter plot contains 12×804 points representing the recurrence time vs. the first passage time to the 12 notes of one octave, over the MDG based on 804 compositions of 29 composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

First passage times to notes feature a composer

By analyzing the typical magnitudes of first passage times to notes in one octave, we can discover an individual creative style of a composer and track out the stylistic influences between different composers.

Correlation and covariance matrices calculated for the medians of the first passage times in a single octave provide the basis for the classification of composers, with respect to their tonality preferences.

The correlogram allows for identifying a number of groups of composers exhibiting similar preferences in the use of tone scales, as correlations are positive and strong within each tone group while being weak or even negative between the different groups.

Classical Period of music

Romantic period in classical music

Middle Romantic era Late Romantic era

The correlogram allows for identifying a number of groups of composers exhibiting similar preferences in the use of tone scales, as correlations are positive and strong within each tone group while being weak or even negative between the different groups.

Interestingly, the names of composers that are contiguous in the correlogram are often found together in musical concerts and on records performed by commercial musicians.