Presentation - Minnesota State Legislature

ONE MINNESOTA CONFERENCE Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer January 2015

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S “OLDER ADULT” POPULATION Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands)

85

1950s

55

60s

71

70s

67

80s

91 47 90s

00s

-

-

-

-

-

10s

20s

30s

40s

2050s

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

GROWTH IN MINNESOTA’S “OLDER ADULT” POPULATION Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 335 285

85

1950s

55

71

67

60s

70s

80s

97

91 47 90s

00s

10s

20s

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

30s

66

56

40s

2050s

AVG. WORKERS ADDED PER YEAR MINNESOTA , 16 +

38,000 32,000

25,000

13,000 8,000 4,000 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Labor force participation Working-age population growth

Productivity growth

Real GDP growth

STATES’ RISING ED ATTAINMENT & GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY

Source: EPI analysis of unpublished total economy productivity data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, state employment data from BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and college attainment data from the Current Population Survey basic monthly microdata

BLACK, LATINO AND ASIAN POPULATIONS GROWING RAPIDLY Populations of color, MN 300,000 250,000 American Indian Asian Black Hispanic Two or more races

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

GAPS IN EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT AND ATTAINMENT EXIST ACROSS RACIAL GROUPS

Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MN HISTORY: MORE 65+ THAN SCHOOL-AGE BY 2020 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000

18-24 65+ 5-17

800,000 600,000 400,000

200,000 0 2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS WILL CHANGE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC SERVICES General Fund Expenditures 2014-2015

Higher Education 8%

All other areas 19%

Health & Human Services 31%

K-12 Education 41%

Within Health & Human Services  Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)  Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)  MA expenditures include basic care, long -term care waivers and long -term institutional care

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE…BUT NOT COMPLETELY DETERMINE IT Our demographic future is sobering IF we continue to adhere to the policies and institutions that we have built for our demographic past. Aging trend will bring new opportunities; license to innovate new pathways to wellbeing.